I should like to remember your excellent lecture held on 8th December 2010 in Prague Center of Economy and Politics. I should like to remember also my short discussion of the theme with you and Mr. president Klaus after the lecture. I have published my information about your lecture in Internet journal Národní listy with some additional information. Particularly, I supplied some information concerning factors affecting climate.
First such factor is the negative feedback reducing climate effect: with growing temperature of the Earth surface, the energy radiated off the surface grows with the fourth power of its (absolute) temperature, so small changes of temperature cause significant changes of energy. Furthermore, practice proved„ that with growing concentration of CO2 in atmosphere grows production of the green mass of plants (up to concentration 2-5%), so the greenhouse gases are more intensively absorbed.
Another effect is the solar activity. First information I found in the course of the Russian TV: Тайны солнечной бездны (Secrets of the Solar Abyss) from Russian Solar Coronary Laboratory on the mountain plato Shajat-Maz (Шаджат-маз, 43° 44' N, 42° 40' E, 2056 m/sea) 40 km north from Elbrus, equipped by trophy coronary telescope fy Carl Zeis Jena. In it they mention the solar activity, which in the time of film creation (2008) was growing with maximum in 2012, then it should fall — scholars used several known cyclic periods. Then, if the main effect on the global warming has solar activity, it should fall soon.
For more details about the Russian research see (1).
Global warming is partially artificial dread created by wicked politician not able to endanger of human race — at worst growing sea level can be uncomfortable for inhabitants of Venetia or Florida, but human race can adapt for it — temperature change has occurred several times during human existence. Another question is, if human race is able to adapt for growing radioactivity caused by the fuel spent by the fission nuclear reactors. Nevertheless, the most dangerous are not local catastrophes like Chernobyl or Fukushima casing local thread, but long time escape of spent fuel created during normal work of fission reactors.
Global warming causes the change of the physical conditions only not influencing the base of the Earth biological life — the genetic information. Moreover — the living organisms development excluded those not able to adapt. On the other hand — so complicated organisms as homo sapiens were developed by the time, when natural Earth surface radioactivity was so low, that it did not destroy its genetic potential.
The effect of the irradiation on living organism is short-term and long-term. The first corresponds to strong short time radioactive irradiation by nuclear explosion and catastrophes; organism either survive or not, when not, it is not permanently endangered. But we are more interested in long-term effects caused by long time irradiation causing disturbance of genetic information. All practical knowledge is taken from empiric observation of irradiated laboratory animals, but also wild mice living in the environment of nuclear power station Chernobyl.
Long term effect can be again split to two categories — effect upon one organism and effects transmitted to ancestors. The first appears mainly by tumor growth, while the second group causes genetic mutation of next generations.
The irradiation effect in some organism cell can be again split into two categories. In majority cases, the non functional cell is created. Such cell organism destroy without harm. When such cell is not too much, organism recovers. But when the irradiated cell is vital, it can result in some form of malign tumor, which can be for organism fatal. Therefore long term irradiation can cause more frequent occurrences of cancer or leukemia.
Genetic mutation can be transmitted to genetic cells, which then bear disturbed genetic information to next generation. Some consequences can occur:
While so called global warming is natural phenomenon existing on the Earth for millions years, and intensity of which vary, the possible radioactive contamination of its surface by radioactive waste is new phenomenon, which does not occur after creation of biological life there.
The raise of Earth surface temperature by several degrees can cause many incontinences, but mankind — specie homo sapiens — can adapt itself to such change.
On the other hand — the raise of radioactive background on Earth is entirely new phenomenon — some raise could be observed in 1950s due to nuclear weapons tests. If mankind would not be able to prevent its growth over some critical value, it might results even to extinction of mankind as biological specie. Similar effect could be caused by another reason — e.g. the nuclear war (may be the „preventive“ one).
Naturally, it would be no disaster for the Earth, which ecologists call by slogan "THE PLANET DIES". The planet would naturally survive, only one harmful specie would extinct. And may be some of its relative species. But for planet Earth it is no danger.
When the significant part of radioactive waste would be expend — from geological point of view it is instant — the new living environment would be created for development of some new species filling up space left by extinct homo sapiens. We can only believe, that they would be wiser than we are.
Special opportunity will gain Australian non-placenta mammals — e.g. Platypus.
national report if Russian federation concerning art. 4 and 12 UNO
convention of climate changes and art. 7 of Kyoto protocol. (2010).
See also Kondratjev K. Ja., Nikol'skij G. A.: Vosdějstvija solněčnoj aktivnosti na strukturnyje komponěnty Zemli. 1. Meteorologičeskije uslovija. Isseldovanije Zemli iz kosmosa 2005, No. 3, pp. 1-10 and other papers of the same authors quoted in the paper.
|(2)||F. Gauthier-Lafaye: The last natural nuclear fission reactor.
Nature 387, 337 (May 22, 1987)
Philip Ball: Are there nuclear reactors at Earth's core?. Nature News (Mat 15, 2008)
(Reactor was located in Oklo, Gabun)
|(3)||Tatiana T. Glazko, Valerii I. Glazko: Genetické
důsledky Černobylu. Vesmír 85, 201, 2006/4. (In Czech)
V. I. Glazko: Chernobyl after 20 years. Priroda No 5, 2006 (In Russian)
See paper of the same authors in English:
Tatiana T. Glazko, Valerii I. Glazko: Problems of species gene pool conservation in mammals after the Chernobyl ecological catastrophe. Animal Science Papers and Reports vol. 22 (2004) no. 1, 141-148